Political Analysts: Daggett can win election with 25% in the polls

Mark Blumenthal over at the National Journal Polling site points out that Chris Daggett can win.

He finished the articles stating that voters should feel comfortable that there vote is not a wasted vote if Daggett breaks 25% in the polls. As the Washington Post has reported at 20% Path Exists For Daggett to Win Race. For those who haven’t heard, Daggett has already passed 20% in latest polls.

Can Daggett Pull A Ventura?

Mark Blumenthal lays out all of the intriguing parallels between the Daggett Campaign and the Ventura Campaign and asks the question “Can Daggett Pull a Ventura?”

He says that “In almost every case, three dynamics facilitate the also-ran’s rise: Strong performances in campaign debates and endorsements from prominent newspapers boost their name recognition, while a last-minute surge in the polls helps convince voters that the long shot really can win.”

For those who haven’t been following the campaign, all three of these factors exist. Daggett has won all three of the Gubernatorial Debates. Every main stream media organization reported Daggett won the first debate hands down.

Winning that debate on Daggett nation wide media coverage and praises from out of state papers like the New York Times and the Philadelphia Inquirer.

The media buzz helped Daggett win an endorsement from NJ’s largest Newspaper, The Star Ledger and caused the NY Times to give a reluctant endorsement to Jon Corzine while once again praising Daggett. That news helped kick up the rumor that Mayor Bloomberg is considering a Chris Daggett endorsement

Mark Blumenthal’s report also doesn’t considered the Recorder News Paper group, which consists of about a dozen NJ papers, to rescind their endorsement of Christ Christie. Instead the 12 New Jersey Newspapers reconsidered their endorsement of Christie and chose to endorse Daggett instead stating that Christie’s lack of a plan and their opinion that only an Independent who is not the slave of special interest can fix the “pirate ship” of “corruption” that exist in NJ.

Daggett went on to win the 2nd Gubernatorial Debate and the the 3rd. In the 3rd NJ Gubernatorial debate here Chris Daggett handed it to both Christie and Corzine for corruption saying to fight corruption you need to lead by example.

Daggett then cited specific corrupt activities that Christie and Corzine had engaged in, including illegal campaign finance and pay to play, and neither Corzine or Christie could defend themselves.

Instead, Corzine acknowledges that activity is going on and agrees with Daggett that it needs to stop.

So taking all of these factors into consideration…

Can Daggett Win?

According to the Washington Post and Mark Blumenthal of the National Journal and a growing number of political analysts the answer is yes. It will be, however, they both note a hard battle. But the key thing here is analysts opinion is shifting from it is impossible for Dagget to Win to Daggett Can Win

Mark Blumenthal says if Daggett breaks 25% voters should feel comfortable that a vote for Daggett is not a wasted voted. He points out that Ventura only polled at 27% and was also being called a spoiler.

Mark states:

Those who follow politics are familiar with a pattern, evident mostly in primary elections, in which two front-running candidates will battle for months, often with an acrimonious exchange of negative advertising, only to be overtaken by a little-known third candidate who surges from single digits in the campaign’s final weeks.

He also points out that even though Ventura was only polling at 27% in the final poll and Ventura won the election by pulling in 37% of the vote.

Mark ends his article with “I’d only vote for him,” he said, “if I got more info on him and he was at 25 and they were at 35.”


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